Midterm Predictions

One day until Election Day. What will we learn?

1. Demographic trends continue 
   • Migration of Americans to Southwest and Southeast states continues, further diversifying their electorates, and making these states emblematic of America’s Melting Pot, plus easier to win for Democrats
2. Education is the greatest predictor 
   • 2016 showed an alarming amount of votes for Trump when the voter was not college educated, and an incredible amount of college educated and above voters supporting Clinton. This divide continues between Democrat and Republican voters in the Midterms. Education is key.
3. The map always favored Democrats in The House and Republicans in The Senate 
   • You cannot fight timing. Republicans have more Senate seats to compete for in states that Trump won in 2016, where Democrats have more House seats to compete for in states they won in 2016.
4. Youth will still disappoint 
   • Pockets of youth voters will show up in huge races that have captivated their interest, but overall, not a big turnout. Texas (Beto), Florida, and potentially Georgia likely display this. Florida, in particular, has a tremendous youth turnout from Parkland shooting activists. This puts their Democratic Governor and Senate challengers over the top.
5. Women will slightly move left 
   • Trumps rhetoric will turn a small amount of women into the Democratic camp in 2018 when compared to 2016, but not much. This small move left may be enough to turn some races blue, especially in the House.
6. American’s are still divided on countless issues 
   • No surprise here. The economy is good, but American’s want more. They won’t vote much different than they did in 2016, showing that Trump has not unified, even with a better economy. The divide is fundamentally baked into our DNA when we do not have a common enemy. Think Bush during 9-11, Regan with the Cold War in the 80s, and FDR during WWII.
7. American’s appreciate a divided legislature 
   • Nearly every single midterm election following the first year of a Presidential goes to the opposite party in control. American’s enjoy checks and balances. Period.
8. It really was a referendum on Trump 
   • Very few races will show otherwise. Most outcomes highlight that Trump was the key part. He’s been unable to get approval beyond 50% in most pockets of the country, cannot turn more blue voters red, and remains stuck at an average rate of approval on the economy despite a rising market, increasing GDP, low unemployment, and tax cut. Why? America is as divided as ever. Voters made their mind up on him in 2016, and few wavered.
9. Few events in the past two years mattered
   • Sensationalized, ever-changing, and biased news didn’t matter. This combination resulted in few American’s focusing on one or two particular events when casting their vote. Big ticket issues still move the dial. This is healthcare, the economy, and safety. These issues always have, and still matter most.
10. 2020 is an uphill battle for Democrats 
    • They know the Electoral College map remains tough. The map is becoming easier in the states like Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Georgia, but difficult in the Midwest and Great Lakes.

Predictions

House – Democrats have a favorable map, based on Republicans not running for reelection. They win the House, but not by much. 222-213. Pelosi stays in control, but struggles mightily.

Senate – Republicans have a favorable map, based on seats up for reelection in Trump strongholds. Democrats lose seats, and end up with 46. They win Arizona, keep Florida, New Jersey, and West Virginia. They lose North Dakota, Montana, Indiana, and Missouri, while Republicans hold on in Nevada, Texas, and Tennessee. 46-54 Republicans. Graham takes over Judiciary Committee.

Gubernatorial – Democrats pick up Florida, Wisconsin, and Ohio. They just miss out on Nevada and Georgia. Republicans keep a majority but not by much.

Lame-Duck House Session – Expect immigration reform to happen in a volatile session to close out 2018, plus healthcare changes, and maybe entitlement. 

Mueller – His findings will fall flat, but he will end his report in early 2019. The findings will likely be presented during an incredibly busy February.

Overall, the ‘Blue Wave/Red Wave’ screams we’ve been hearing for two-years will fall flat. Nothing really changed.

2020 Democrats -We’ll see hats thrown into the ring beginning December of 2018, and by middle of 2020, Kamala Harris will win the nomination.

Stocks / Economy – Market continues to rally, with the Dow hitting 30,000 by mid year 2019. A divided legislature, and conclusion of Mueller removes any political worry. Rates don’t rise as fast, Americans realize their tax bill went considerably lower, and GDP stays strong. Wages tick up.

Events in 2019 and 2020 – Trump will have a new Attorney General, and become stronger at controlling the media. The PR and optics coming out from his administration improve. Legislative changes are absent, and America begins to get fatigue from following a never-ending soap opera that results in gridlock.