The impeachment that was three years in the making. It was solidified when American voters elected over twenty Democrat members to Congress, and officially swayed the balance of power. They were told by candidates at the time that they were going to D.C. to hold Trump accountable. Impeachment wasn’t the endgame. Or, so they were told. It was healthcare. Remember? The border took center stage in October, but Pelosi changed the narrative towards the finish line last November. Polls showed the healthcare Hail Mary played well with most of the seats they switched, and not impeachment. But, that doesn’t matter now.
How does this impact the general election in 2020? Well, Trump is impeached, and he will wear the Scarlet Letter for about a year. Remember, he switched Iowa (148,000), Wisconsin (23,000), Michigan (11,000), Pennsylvania (54,000), North Carolina (173,000), Ohio (447,000), and Florida (103,000) from blue to red with the number of votes in parentheses highlighting the margin of victory.
One key point – whoever leads the Democrats can simply swap Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and win 2020. That’s essentially only 88,000 votes.
Let’s focus on the black vote. Black turnout went down by about 765,000 in 2016. So, while one can say white votes pushed Trump over the hump, a lack of black votes gave him the win, too. What does that mean for 2020? Say the same turnout happens, and blacks stay home, again. This means the Democrats need to sway half+1 of those 88,000 voters, or sway some, and rely on new voters. The new bloc likely comes from Gen-Z voters coming of age, and lower echelon Millennials who didn’t vote in 2016. This is a plausible scenario, and one that isn’t too hard. But, what if even more black voters stay home in 2020 or end up supporting Trump? Now, Democrats have a problem.
Why are black voters not coming out, and why does this matter? Well, the last time a Republican lost with at least 8% of the black vote was in 1996 with Clinton v Gore. So, the number matters. It is especially true in cities like Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia where only a few thousand voters can turn the red state back to blue and take Trump out.
That brings us to the main question. Why would a black voter come out? For three years they’ve been told Trump is racist, yet Trump has remained steady with his black vote support. It doesn’t appear the rhetoric has stuck. It is hard to believe that impeachment would suddenly move the dial. The Democrats have another problem. Black vote is in Joe Biden’s corner. What if he doesn’t get the nod? The South Carolina Primary proved the hypothesis he was touting for months. Biden is the only candidate that can drive out the Obama coalition of black voters. The Democratic Party in South Carolina is comprised of about 57% black voters. Of those, 6 in 10 gave their vote to Biden. This is huge. It is the most relevant piece of data from any of the four states that have voted to date. Joe Biden is the only candidate the Democrats have that can drive out black voters in states that matter. He is their only formidable opponent.
They already lost a lot of Clinton-era Democrats who felt left behind in 2016. Remember, Hillary didn’t even visit Wisconsin. Losing a portion of the Obama coalition is a death sentence for the party. As of now, it seems all but a foregone conclusion. The other candidates simply do not have confidence with black voters. Mayor Pete has shown an inability to deal with race relations on a local level when an officer involved shooting took place in South Bend a few months back. Mayor Bloomberg has drastically miscalculated race relations with his stop and frisk tactics while acting as Mayor of New York. The party may have ideas that speak to college age individuals, but that is not enough to drive up turnout and win in November. The black vote is paramount to success, and as of today, they have worsened their stance with the community since 2016.
Phil Your Day 