The 2018 midterms are less than one hundred days away, and then you’re less than sixty days from 2019. Why is that important? It means the first Democratic Presidential candidates will be throwing their hats into the ring before you know it. How will they line up?
Kamala Harris made an interesting pivot over the weekend. She delivered a president-like speech going against Identity Politics. She mentioned the importance of legislating for all Americans. Harris was beginning a unification strategy within the party, while developing her national message, simultaneously. It was interesting she swung towards a centrist message. Harris has always been quite liberal.
The other side of the Democratic spectrum is Bernie Sanders advocating Medicare for All. He has become even more liberal since his unsuccessful run in 2016.
We are unsure where current frontrunner Elizabeth Warren falls on the spectrum, for now.
Howard Schultz will run, and he will certainly be the most Moderate/Centrist of the bunch. His likelihood of success hinges on 2018. A Blue Wave in the Midterms resulting in a Democratic controlled House will allow the Party to further pivot left and ramp up meaningful opposition of Donald Trump. This likely puts any chance of Schultz gaining traction at zero. A Blue Disaster or Red Wave will further the panic in the Democratic ranks, and open the door for the centrist businessman.
Turnout, as always, will dictate the success. Polls lean Democratic, but this is difficult to trust if 2016 is to be used as a guide. It’s amazing to ponder the two realities. They are stark in contrast.
Scenario One, A Successful Blue Wave
Democrats prove their anti-Trump strategy worked. They galvanized enough voters to come out and use their vote for a Congressman as an anti-Trump referendum. Trump loses any momentum, and is immediately thrown into campaign mode for 2020. Democrats successfully implement a blockade in the House, and become obstructionists, similar to Republicans from 2010-2016 during Obama. This allows the Party to move further Left, and the platform issues become
- ICE Abolishment
- Medicare for All
- Lobbyist reform regarding the NRA in particular
- Supreme Court Justice term limits
- Free College Tuition + Student Loan debt
Trump has his back against the wall, and a far-left candidate, such as Warren or Sanders wins the Primary. The Democrats have no room for a Moderate on their debate stage.
Scenario Two, Red Wave
Trump holds on to the House, picks up seats in the Senate, and he gains momentum heading into 2020. The anti-Trump fervor proves to be a poor strategy, and the Democrats realize the pseudo Socialist/Capitalism platform, coupled with using ICE and the NRA as villains doesn’t resonate with enough of the country. The Party breaks with their far-left candidates that have been the loudest in recent years. Howard Schultz, the party’s most moderate candidate appears to be their best opportunity for victory in 2020. The platform evolves with his centrist leaning, and the top issues become
- Monitoring the Nation’s national-debt
- Entitlement reform regarding Medicare, and Social Security
- Term limits for Supreme Court Justices, as well as Senators
- Corporate Tax initiatives different from the current 2017 reform
- Economic debates on America’s problem with Income-Inequality, with potential subsidies, and further income tax cuts coming into play
It’s amazing to think how different the outcome will be coming out of the November midterms. Two possible results bring about two vastly different Democratic Party messages. The message will result in a candidate that embraces the center or favoring the far-left.
How does America react in November of 2018? Do they vote out Republicans exclusively on an anti-Trump message, or do they demand Democrats provide them with more substance? We’re less than one hundred days away from finding out. The outcome will have large ramifications
Phil Your Day 