Before I begin, it’s important to understand two things as we head into this election. First, in most instances, the president will not directly impact your life in ways you may believe. Life will go on, and it’ll remain similar to how it was. The decisions a few individuals make in Washington do not affect your life in ways the media and our power-hungry bureaucrats lead you to think. They do this to elevate your emotion, so you continue to rely on them like a user seeking his fix. That leads to my second point. We are Americans. A collective of over three hundred million. We share more in common than we understand. Yes, things may divide us ideologically, but we’re predominately good people seeking the common goal of a better life for us and our loved ones. In saying that, we would be remiss to continue this notion that we are a divided country with staunch disagreements. It’s not true. Now, onto the predictions.
2020. The year we went to war against a virus, and minorities took center stage. Both matter when projecting the results on November 3. First, the war. America has never changed leaders during a war. Interesting to note, that is true when we last battled a major pandemic in 1918 with the Spanish Flu. The most recent example is 2004 when the Iraq War was center stage with Bush and Kerry. Americans opted to stay the course. Similarly, Americans had a choice to alter the course of the Cold War in 1984 with Reagan and Mondale. We stuck with Nixon when the Vietnam War heated up, FDR through WWII, and Wilson through WWI. Americans even stayed with Madison through the War of 1812. History proves it’s not only tough to unseat a sitting president, but it has never happened when trying to unseat a wartime president.
The second part is 2020 being the year of the minority. Americans are voting with their emotions, but at the core of their decision, the choice is clear. Return to a globalist world focused on unilateral deals connecting nations, or maintain a blend of nationalism and isolationism. Well, 2016 was the year of white suburban voters retaking center stage. They shocked everyone and joined forces with Trump. It was the Clinton Democrats and Reagan Democrats of the Midwest and Great Lakes that flung Trump into power. We know 2020 will be decided by minorities, but the focus has been centered on black voters, and that’s where the left likely missed the boat.
The largest voting block by ethnicity in America after whites is the Hispanic community. In fact, this voting block outnumbers the black vote by nearly three to one. We learned in 2016 that Democrats took votes for granted, and it seems like they did it again. Currently, the black vote appears to be growing in numbers for Trump. The bar was low. He essentially only captured one of every ten black votes, but a move to two votes is tremendous. He also only got four of ten Hispanic votes. It’s looking like he’ll split the vote this time around. That is huge. Again, remember this group outnumbers blacks three to one. The Hispanic vote stayed loyal to Bush in 2000 and 2004, but McCain, and Romney failed to maintain the support in their respective defeats. It seems like 2020 will be a coming out party for the Hispanic voters.
It’s also important to ask why the polls aren’t necessarily picking this up, again. It’ll be proven when the dust settles, but I believe minority voters are too scared to openly speak of their support for Trump. This was seen with white voters in 2016. Today, most white voters have become more comfortable speaking about their support for Trump. Especially when compared with 2016. This isn’t the case yet in minority communities. We may be witnessing their coming out party on November 3. But why?
Well, I don’t think it’s as difficult to fathom. Americans want to consume. That’s what we do better than any other nation on earth. It’s whats propelled the American economy to the top of the list for a century. We produce. We innovate. We consume. We have a determination born from our revolutionary spirit, and an innate optimism because of our past successes. Covid is a war. Americans want to fight it. But, they want the ability to fight it on their terms. Think of it as a libertarian philosophy. We understand the risk, we have the tools, but we want the ability to decide how we go about our lives. We want to consume. We want to be happy. We are determined to move forward. This is a message that doesn’t resonate with a Biden vote. It really doesn’t align entirely with Trump, but it certainly is closer to it. Americans want to return to the past, but the past they want is 2019, not 2009. That’s key. They want to go back to Trump, not Obama/Biden. They want restrictions to stay eased, businesses to be able to open, and the freedom to decide their mobility. That’s a message that appeals to all Americans. Not specific racial groups. That’s why the left’s decision to go all in on Covid, as opposed to parts of their robust platform, loses them the election.
Take a look at the platform of the left. They win big on healthcare and the environment. Even most Republican voters agree both need improvements (healthcare), and more focus (environment + clean energy). The problem with the left’s message this time around is they didn’t stay on point with those two winning issues. They pushed them down the list of their platform. The Covid vote may resonate with their far-left voters in San Francisco, Brooklyn, and Seattle, but it doesn’t stick with many others. At least not as their top priority. It goes back to the economic message that Trump wins, and Biden doesn’t.
The left took their second largest ethnic voting block for granted, and it’ll cost them 2020. Few policies and platform initiatives directly pandered to the Hispanic community. A community that has proven to be an unreliable voting block to either party. A community that continues to expand in size and quietly shows they are the group that the parties should focus more attention on.
Here’s how this will play out on election night. We know we will not get clarity from the Great Lake states and Pennsylvania. This is huge. It’s what the media and party elites will tell us why we can’t decide the vote on the night of. That’s likely a fallacy. We will get results from New Hampshire, North Carolina, Texas, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and Iowa. We may get results from Florida and Ohio. Let’s break dow how this matters. North Carolina and New Hampshire will be blueprints for white voters. As will Texas, Georgia, and Iowa. If we see results come in similar to 2016 numbers, Trump likely maintained his white base, and possibly wins the Great Lakes and PA. I say possibly though because nearly a million black voters stayed home in 2016, likely costing Hillary those states. If they show up in 2020, Biden likely wins. That’s why the Hispanic vote is key. Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Texas show us these results. If AZ and TX Hispanics throw more support Trump’s way, the night likely ends fast. Florida is similar. If Nevada sways from blue to red, the premise of Hispanics moving back to the GOP is proven, and it’s all but certain he wins big when the dust settles. So in short, we won’t get results from a few key states, but we will see where different groups vote, then that’ll deliver us meaningful guides for where we head.
Finally, 2020 is a national election based on ideologies, not a geographic election based on differences. What does that mean? We’re in a war against Covid. Wartime elections boil down to the issues I highlighted in the early portion of this piece. It’s why wartime presidents keep power. If one voting block in one state is voting a particular way, it’s safe to say in 2020 the same is true for a similar voter in another state. Non-wartime elections are regional. Wartime elections are national. Trump wins with a message of economic resiliency via American steadfastness by turning over a new leaf on coronavirus.
Phil Your Day 